On the Limits of Computer-Driven Automobiles

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction) 05/01/2019 at 12:05 • Filed to: None

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Besides weather-induced challenges, what other situations that you occasionally run into on the road would be near-impossible for a computer-driven car to solve?

nermal > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:12

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Stereotyping.

I know a bro in a bro truck is going to behave differently than an old lady in a B uick or some wannabe (or actual) gang members in a hooptie with the bass turned up.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:16

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Most of my drive to work is a “cow path” as in 2 lanes, no shoulders, no acceleration/deceleration lanes, but there are tons of side roads and driveways. And everyone just kind of knows when to stop and let folks in. Towards the end of this cow path there is one blind T inersection where from either way on the main road you’re coming down a hill and around a corner, and this road joins at the bottom. People generally slow down around the blind turns and usually end up stopping to let people from the side road of the T in.  I just don’t think an AI is going to “know” that.  

sony1492 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:16

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Rural roads can have oncoming traffic in your partially in your lane until the very last moment, but it’s the way people drive and an autonomous vehicle might see it as an imminent accident and put itself in a ditch.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > nermal 05/01/2019 at 12:17

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Knowing the old lady in the Buick is never going to accelerate past 10 under the speed limit is very helpful information. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Snuze: Needs another Swede 05/01/2019 at 12:18

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Half of mine is very much the same. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > sony1492 05/01/2019 at 12:19

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Yup - a good portion of my drive is like this. Drivers cheat the center because there are so many bad potholes near the edges. 

Chariotoflove > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:19

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The only way computers could effectively operate in our current car infrastructure environment is if they learn judgement. And that includes value judgements. Honestly, I don’t think that we will be there any time soon, and I don’t want our computers to get there. It not only puts too much in the hands of the machine, but also takes away from what makes us human.

We have advanced enough computers to do autonomous driving now if we change the infrastructure to take out judgement. We would have to put cars in defined rails or tracks and impose schedules on their movements so the computers would coordinate everything.

But then, that’s mass transit.  And as many have pointed out, there’s no point to paying to convert our cars over to that to make a de novo mass transit system alongside the ones we already have.

Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:20

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I’ve heard the Tesla is having problems with driving ahead. If I can see around the panel- van- disguised- as- a- luxury- SUV in front of me, I’m usually trying to watch what is going 2+ cars ahead to plan my actions accordingly. You’d think with all the modern tech in cars, they’d be able to do that.... but apparently not.

https://jalopnik.com/this-test-shows-why-tesla-autopilot-crashes-keep-happen-1826810902

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:22

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Those are all problems that arise from a mix of AVs and human-operated vehicles. It’s really an all or nothing scenario.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chariotoflove 05/01/2019 at 12:24

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Inter-car communication will be a gamechanger.

DipodomysDeserti > nermal 05/01/2019 at 12:24

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If you don’t think tech bros can figure out stereotyping, think again.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2166207-discriminating-algorithms-5-times-ai-showed-prejudice/amp/

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > nermal 05/01/2019 at 12:24

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Very true, I stereotype the fuck out of every car when I’m driving and it does help me predict what they are going to do.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 05/01/2019 at 12:26

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Even if all AV, t he traffic light situation I mentioned would end up just being a huge backup until a city employee could come out and fix it.

There will still be bicyclists and pedestrians, and therefore traffic lights. 

Chariotoflove > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:26

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I agree.  But I think it will still only work within a simplified structure that removes judgement calls as much as possible.

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:27

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Autonomous cars need to have an “Aggressive ” setting. They need to know when to push it a little further and not be overly cautious when passing, accelerating or maintaining the gap between cars especially when they are not surrounded by other autonomous cars. Take too much time and someone will come in between you to take that opportunity.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo 05/01/2019 at 12:28

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I HATE not being able to see ahead. I’ll change lanes or drop back if I find myself stuck in such a situation. I think the sensors are all mounted lower (in the grille), so they also don’t get the advantage of seeing through windshields like we do.

Maxima Speed > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:28

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I’m curious about this as well. If we can program cars with predictive analysis we would be in business. Let’s use Tesla as an example. Imagine if a Tesla could “ hive learn” and store all the instances that it had to brake hard, or swerve out of the way of something, then upload it at night to the Tesla network. Advanced pattern recognition programs could analyze thousands of recorded instances and begin to apply rules that reflect this. In essence the Tesla’s would be learning how to drive just like humans do, through doing it, but with the added advantage of simultaneously learning from all the Tesla’s on the road. I can see some challenges to this but it seems doable. However I guess the question really comes down to is; can a self driving car drive (and handle unexpected situations) better than the vast majority of the populace? Based on the what I see around me every day on the road I would lean towards yes. We talk about looking ahead, seeing something before it happens, etc. The truth is I doubt 98 percent of the drivers on t he road do any of that. Many people’s reactions are: one, very slow; two, usually either panicked stomping on t he brakes, panicked swerve, or a panicked horn blowing. That in itself may cause issues for predictive learning programs but may be rectified but not mimicking human behavior in the pattern analysis but instead using other, proper techniques.

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:31

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Maybe? Given V2V communication implemented well, all might treat the light as a 4 way stop and proceed correctly. Alternatively, there may be no need for signal lights if all vehicles are autonomous.

Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:33

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See I vaguely recall hearing that the low-mounted sensors should be able to “bounce” signals under the car in front to see ahead of it . This was a looooong time ago so... maybe I’m crazy.

Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:34

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And yes.  I’ve decided that all modern SUVs/ CUVs are just fancy panel vans.

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 12:50

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Road construction. Right now I drive regularly on a stretch of interstate that they have temporarily rerouted across to the other side while they replace a bridge.

The actual routing changes regularly ( just changed Monday in fact), and the pavement, plus old markings, absolutely do  NOT follow the correct path. An automated system would have to be able to distinguish, instantaneously, the correct marking to follow.

Any delay or mistake would instantly cause a 10+ vehicle accident (turns are sharp and road is busy).

Chinny Raccoon > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 13:21

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Who has to reverse on a single track road, though I’d imagine that a self driving system would just fall over crying at our little roads in general.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo 05/01/2019 at 13:53

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Ah, interesting.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 05/01/2019 at 13:56

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I’m looking forward to the advance of widespread V2V, but that’s decades away.

The problem was, the lights were “working”, just not correctly. Much more complicated than if they were out completely.

Bicycles, motorcycles and pedestrians will always necessitate traffic signals. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chinny Raccoon 05/01/2019 at 13:59

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Yup. Better hope there’s a manual override, and still a steering wheel in the cabin! 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 05/01/2019 at 14:01

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Yeah, s o much variation in construction zones...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time 05/01/2019 at 14:02

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Haha - good luck with that, but you’re right.

Maybe call it “assertive”?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chariotoflove 05/01/2019 at 14:03

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simplified structure = massive cost

themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 14:27

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“Qualifying mode”

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Maxima Speed 05/01/2019 at 14:49

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Hive learning about certain troublesome intersections, etc., is certainly an interesting concept.

Maxima Speed > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 15:42

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Yes, not only this but also seeing patterns like; drivers inching forward or slow rolling before darting in front of you. A human would let off the gas some as it is a possible threat. A machine will continue until the problem happens.

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 15:44

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Someone else probably said it, but heavy snow is a problem also.

Around me, during blizzards, the lane marking is absolutely not visible. And in fact, you generally follow ru ts in the snow, which frequently *don’t* follow the actual lanes. 3 lane highways truly become 2 lanes (or even 1), with the 2 lanes probably straddling the “real” lanes. And sometimes “lanes” just end with no warning.

It’s hard to visualize if you’re not familiar with driving on busy roads during blizzards but it’s real.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 05/01/2019 at 16:51

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Yup. I put “besides weather” in my post because this and heavy rain, etc. are the things most likely to cause these systems problems. 

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2019 at 17:06

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I don’t read I just comment apparently lol

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 05/01/2019 at 17:09

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Reading comprehension is also not my strong suit. 

functionoverfashion > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2019 at 11:01

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One thought is just avoiding potholes and frost heaves... if I drove blindly over the road I drive every day, I’d have multiple flat tires and/or broken suspension components by now, I do not exaggerate. This would be very hard to teach a computer to learn, especially as they constantly change.

Another time I think an autonomous car would have trouble is a really common one: I come through a traffic circle/rotary/roundabout every day on my way to work. It’s a small one with a raised cobblestone center overlap area for trailers, etc. and it’s quite busy. ALL THE TIME as I’m coming around there, a car is entering from one side (to my right) and if I didn’t know better, I’d think they weren’t going to stop. People come into there FAST and stop at the last second. I always have my left foot over my brake pedal as I come around and I watch these cars very closely. Sometimes they dart in, which usually elicits a honk from me. I would think an autonomous car would see the collision course happening - it should - but I think it would have a hard time knowing that the car on the right will stop, so... it would probably hit the brakes to avoid what looks like an imminent collision? I would think so. It’s an interesting thought, anyway.